Muhurat Trading 2025: Markets Begin Samvat 2082 with Muted Gains as Investors Eye Earnings Recovery

Indian stock markets ushered in Samvat 2082—the Hindu New Year—with a special one-hour Muhurat trading session on October 21, 2025, that ended with modest gains. The BSE Sensex closed 62.97 points higher at 84,426.34 (up 0.07%), while the Nifty 50 gained 25.45 points to settle at 25,868.60 (up 0.10%). Though the gains were marginal, the session marked the beginning of what analysts expect to be a stronger year ahead, driven by improving domestic fundamentals and earnings recovery.

The session, held from 1:45 pm to 2:45 pm, saw initial enthusiasm with the Sensex opening nearly 270 points higher, but profit-booking towards the close trimmed most gains. Despite the muted finish, market breadth remained positive with 2,732 shares advancing against 898 declining on the NSE.

Samvat 2081 Review: A Year of Consolidation

The outgoing Samvat 2081 was a year of consolidation for Indian equities, marked by modest returns after two years of robust gains. The Nifty 50 delivered returns of around 6% during the Samvat period, while the Sensex gained approximately 6.26% during the same period. However, the one-year returns stood at a more modest 3.58% for Nifty and 3.19% for Sensex.

The Nifty Bank index was the standout performer, delivering 12% returns and hitting fresh record highs during the year. Nifty PSU Bank emerged as the leading sectoral gainer with 14% gains, followed by Nifty Auto at 16% and Nifty Metal at 9%. The Nifty Midcap 100 managed to rise by 5%, but the Nifty Smallcap 250 underperformed with a 4% decline.

Sectoral Divergence in Samvat 2081:

On the losing side, global-facing and defensive sectors struggled significantly. Nifty IT plummeted 13%, weighed down by concerns over US tariffs, visa restrictions, and a slowdown in global technology spending. Nifty Energy dropped 10%, while Nifty Realty fell 6%, Nifty FMCG declined 4%, and Nifty Pharma slipped 2%.

Individual stock performance showed sharp divergences. Top performers included Maruti Suzuki (48% gain), Indian Bank (32%), Bajaj Finance (45-55% range), Bharat Electronics, and InterGlobe Aviation. On the downside, TCS fell 25%, Piramal Pharma dropped 28%, Colgate Palmolive declined 25%, and Varun Beverages fell 23%.

Key Challenges That Defined Samvat 2081

According to VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, the most significant factor behind India’s market underperformance was the sharp decline in earnings growth. “India’s earnings growth fell to just 5% in FY25 from an average of 24% during the previous three years. Since in the long run the market is a slave of earnings, the major trend going forward will depend on how earnings growth pans out,” he explained.

Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) outflows were another major headwind. For the year-to-date, FPIs sold equities worth approximately Rs 2.39 lakh crore, with around $15 billion withdrawn from Indian markets. The exodus was driven by attractive valuations in China, US trade policy uncertainties, and elevated Indian market valuations.

Trump administration’s tariff policies, visa restrictions, and geopolitical uncertainties further dampened sentiment. The rupee depreciated, crude oil volatility persisted, and private capital expenditure and consumption showed signs of slowing down during the first half of Samvat 2081.

However, the second half saw recovery as domestic institutional investors (DIIs) stepped in strongly. DIIs were net buyers of Rs 6.03 lakh crore during the year, with robust support from retail investors through systematic investment plans (SIPs). Monthly SIP collections exceeded Rs 2.5 lakh crore during the year, reflecting unwavering confidence in India’s long-term growth story.

Muhurat Trading 2025: Day’s Highlights

The special Muhurat session on October 21 marked the fifth consecutive day of gains for Indian markets, though with reduced momentum. The session witnessed volatility, with the Sensex falling nearly 250 points from its intraday high of 84,665.44 to close at 84,426.34.

Top Gainers and Losers:

Among Nifty constituents, Cipla emerged as the top gainer, followed by Bajaj Finserv (up 1.42%), Axis Bank (up 0.80%), Infosys (up 0.72%), Grasim, Tata Steel, Power Grid, and Bajaj Finance.

On the losing side, Kotak Mahindra Bank fell 0.98%, followed by ICICI Bank (down 0.65%), HCL Technologies (down 0.60%), Asian Paints (down 0.64%), and Maruti Suzuki.

Infosys received a boost after the Donald Trump administration clarified exemptions to the controversial $100,000 H-1B visa fee, allowing employers to proceed with certain change-of-status filings, easing concerns for IT companies.

Broader Market Performance:

The broader markets outperformed benchmark indices. The BSE Midcap index rose 0.23% to 46,787.20, while the BSE Smallcap index gained 0.91% to 53,842.85, indicating selective buying in mid and small-cap segments.

Sectoral performance was mixed. Nifty Media, Metal, and Pharma were the top gainers, each rising around 0.3-0.5%. Nifty Auto, Energy, Financial Services, IT, Consumer Durables, and Oil & Gas also closed with marginal gains. However, Nifty Bank, PSU Bank, and Realty settled in the red.

Investment Flows:

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers of Rs 790.45 crore on October 20, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) purchased shares worth Rs 2,485.46 crore, showing strong domestic support ahead of the new Samvat year.

During the Muhurat session on October 21, FIIs bought shares worth Rs 96.72 crore, while DIIs were net sellers of Rs 607.01 crore.

Outlook for Samvat 2082: Cautious Optimism

Market experts and analysts are cautiously optimistic about Samvat 2082, expecting it to deliver better returns than the previous year, driven by improving corporate earnings, supportive fiscal and monetary policies, and resilient domestic demand.

Earnings Recovery as the Key Driver:

VK Vijayakumar emphasized that earnings growth will be the primary driver. “The fiscal and monetary reforms implemented this year have started showing results. Particularly, the sales of automobiles and white goods have shot up early this festive season. If this trend sustains, earnings growth will be good at around 8-10% in FY26, accelerating to around 15% in FY27,” he stated.

He added, “If this expectation materializes, the market will rally in Samvat 2082, compensating for the underperformance of Samvat 2081. In the short run, the market may get a leg up from a possible India-US trade deal, but the long-term trend will be dictated by earnings growth.”

Policy Tailwinds:

The Union Budget 2025-26’s announcement of zero income tax for individuals earning up to Rs 1 lakh per month, coupled with GST rationalization into a simplified two-tier structure, is expected to boost domestic consumption significantly. The government’s continued support for manufacturing through Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes and infrastructure spending will also aid growth.

The Reserve Bank of India’s 100-basis-point rate cut, with expectations of another 25 bps reduction soon, is expected to boost consumption and capital expenditure. Lower borrowing costs will support sectors such as real estate, automobiles, and capital goods.

Target Projections:

Banking and market analyst Ajay Bagga projected, “We expect Nifty at 30,000 by the next Diwali. The BSE Sensex is expected to target levels around 95,000,” implying potential gains of around 16% and 13% respectively.

Nomura set a more conservative March 2026 target of 26,140 for Nifty 50, based on 21 times FY27 estimated earnings per share (EPS) of Rs 1,245. Other brokerages expect returns in the 10-15% range for Samvat 2082.

Preferred Sectors:

Analysts recommend focusing on banking and financials, automobiles, capital goods, infrastructure, power, defense, and select consumption plays. Large-cap stocks are preferred for stability, with selective opportunities in quality mid-caps. Contrarian bets in the IT sector, given the attractive valuations after the 13% decline in Samvat 2081, are also being considered.

Risk Factors:

However, not all experts are equally bullish. Nilesh Shah, Managing Director of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company, highlighted concerns: “India’s high valuations, single-digit earnings growth over the past six quarters, and persistent selling by promoters could weigh on sentiment.”

He pointed out that US trade tariffs continue to impact profit growth and could prompt foreign investors to reduce holdings. “In the near to medium term, there is a tug of war between FPIs and Promoters on one side and DIIs and retail investors on the other,” Shah noted.

Elevated valuations remain a concern. Despite some correction, Nifty 50’s valuation of around 23 times trailing 12-month earnings remains above the 10-year average. Midcap and smallcap segments are trading at significant premiums to their historical averages.

What to Watch Next

As Samvat 2082 unfolds, several factors will determine the market trajectory:

Quarterly Earnings: The ongoing Q2 FY26 earnings season will be critical. Improved earnings growth, particularly in the 8-10% range, will validate the optimistic outlook. Key sectors to watch include banking, auto, FMCG, and infrastructure.

India-US Trade Deal: Any breakthrough on trade negotiations could provide a significant short-term boost. Clarity on tariffs, visa policies, and bilateral cooperation will be closely monitored.

FPI Flows: The resumption of sustained FPI inflows will be crucial. October has already seen improved flows, with FPIs being net buyers of Rs 300 crore month-to-date. Continued improvement would signal renewed confidence in Indian markets.

Global Factors: US Federal Reserve policy, dollar strength, crude oil prices, and geopolitical developments will influence foreign flows and market sentiment.

Technical Levels: On the charts, Nifty faces immediate resistance at 26,000, with support at 25,750-25,800. A decisive breakout above 26,000-26,300 could lead to fresh lifetime highs. On the downside, 25,600-25,500 serves as a key support zone.

Festive Season Consumption: Early signs of strong automobile and consumer durables sales during the festive season need to sustain. Continued momentum would support earnings expectations for FY26.

GST 2.0 Implementation: The anticipated GST reforms and their impact on various sectors will be important to track. Simplification could boost FMCG, auto, and retail sectors.

Corporate Capex: Revival of private capital expenditure after a prolonged slowdown will be crucial for sustaining economic growth and corporate profitability.

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Disclaimer:

This article is only for information purposes and is not investment advice. Before investing, do your own research.